In the industry research laboratories of the early 20th century, the question was, which comes first, basic research leading to new scientific knowledge, followed by development efforts to create commercial products? or development efforts to create commercial products, which, when problems arise are shifted to basic research to find answers? If we look at the industrial revolution more broadly, the answer has been that science has come along behind technology changes. Both Matt Ridley and Nassim Taleb have remarked on this sequencing. Ridley in The Rational Optimist, and Taleb most recently in an Edge piece:
Textbooks tend to show technology flowing from science, when it is more often the opposite case, dubbed the “lecturing birds on how to fly” effect. In such developments as the industrial revolution (and more generally outside linear domains such as physics), there is very little historical evidence for the contribution of fundamental research compared to that of tinkering by hobbyists.
We can posit that innovation’s arrow is quirkier than a simple one way or the other, but the basic question has significant operational consequences for a company looking for new products.
1. Which direction does innovation’s arrow point?
Where to put the primary effort? Tinkering by hobbyists doesn’t sound like serious boardroom talk (not that serious boardroom talk has been known to produce lots of innovation), nor does it sound like federal innovation policy, which strikes a grander register that does not include words such as “tinker” and “hobbyist.” Such policy prefers “innovation” and “blue-ribbon panel.” Continue reading